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Friday 29 November 2013

EPL Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal & Liverpool to draw, City to Smash 5?

We’ve got a big week coming up, with a full schedule of games on Saturday and Sunday and then again in mid-week. Just this weekend’s predictions for the moment and then I’ll try to get a post up on Sunday or Monday for the next set. Partly, we’ll need to adjust for any injuries that come up on Saturday and Sunday so that the starting line-ups in the model for the mid-week round will be as accurate as possible.
I’m continuing to tune the model with a bit of cleaning up around the edges, some work to make sure that ‘big chances’ (as defined by Opta) get converted at the correct rate and also adjusting the length of matches to cope with Arsenal’s and Man City’s (in particular) very high passing frequencies. All together it should be worth an extra 2%, or 5-7 correct predictions across a season. Once you’ve got a reasonable model, you have to fight hard for every tiny improvement!

I hope there’ll be a larger update at some point this season and have quite a few upgrades on the list left to try, but every time I make a change, I simulate a full couple of seasons to see if it’s made things better or worse, so it can be a bit of slow process making improvements.

Before we dive into this week’s predictions, last week’s games were interesting. We had a modest win at the bookies, but overall I was pleased with the model’s forecasts. Here they are as a reminder…
Running through in order, Everton v Liverpool was a brilliant but crazy game that either team could have won. Maybe the model leaned too far towards Liverpool but if Allen had shot with his eyes open, we’d probably have got that one.

Arsenal beat Southampton, Newcastle beat Norwich, Stoke beat Sunderland and West Brom drew with Villa. Lovely.

Of the losing bets, Fulham to draw, Hull to draw and Man U to win were all close. With the level of randomness in football, you’re going to be wrong a lot, but it’s worrying when your predictions are nowhere near. That did happen, in West Ham vs. Chelsea where although the model picked the right winner its draw percentage was high, leading to a losing bet. That’s the single call from last week I’m really not happy about and will be investigating a bit further.

The call I’m delighted with was Man City’s big win over Tottenham. A few eyebrows were raised last Friday over the model’s 5-1 “most likely score” prediction, but it ended up being pretty accurate! Man City’s shooting accuracy at home is spectacular so far this season, but the model also adjusts opponents based on who they’re playing, which led to some poor expected individual performances for Spurs. It certainly won’t predict that everybody gets battered by Man City at home and didn’t for Swansea this week. Well, that was up until those tweaks I mentioned earlier. Now on the other hand…

Here are this week’s percentages:
And like last week, predicted possession and shooting stats for each game:
If you’re betting, I’ll be going for:

Aston Villa vs Sunderland – Home win
Cardiff City vs Arsenal – Away win
Everton vs Stoke City – Home win
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace – Home win
West Ham United vs Fulham – Draw
Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion – Home win
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United – Away win
Hull City vs Liverpool – Away win
Chelsea vs Southampton – Home win
Manchester City vs Swansea City – Home win

Friday 15 November 2013

Portugal v Sweden : Ronaldo, Meireles And Ibrahimovic To Start – Lineups, Team News And Prediction (November 16, 2013 | 03:45)

Portugal host Sweden in the highly anticipated World Cup qualifier fixture tomorrow at Estadio da Luz. The build-up to this crucial first leg have been around Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Both the players have been in awe-inspiring form in recent times and it would be shame that only one would make it to the World Cup next year.

Sweden have a wonderful record against Portugal and have lost only three of their last 15 meetings against them. The fact that Portugal have never managed to win in Sweden in their previous seven attempts, will be a cause for concern Paulo Bento, and he knows that his side need to get a substantial lead in the first leg at home.

The last three meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw, in fact Portugal last won against Sweden in 2002, in an international friendly when Rui Costa scored a later winner to give a memorable 3-2 win over Sweden. This two legged clash promises to be an exciting battle as Portugal look to qualify for their third consecutive World Cup.

Team News and tactics
Portugal
Portugal endured a fairly disappointing qualification campaign as finished second behind Russia in Group F. Portugal were in a fairly easy group and were widely expected to win this and qualify comfortably for Brazil next year, but they left themselves in a mess after dropping points against the likes of Israel and Northern Ireland.

Portugal are coming into this match on the back of a 3-0 win over Luxembourg as Varela, Nani and Postiga got on the score-sheet for the home side. Paulo Bento was without a lot of big names for that game and is expected to make a lot of changes to the starting line-up that he fielded against Luxembourg.

Bento doesn’t have too many injury concerns to contain with ahead of this fixture. There are some doubts about the fitness of Real Madrid left back Fabio Coentrao, but he is expected to recover in time and feature against Sweden. Joao Pereira will replace Almeida at the right back, while Pepe and Bruno Alves resume their partnership at the center of the defence. Meiresles didn’t feature against Luxembourg, but the former Liverpool midfielder will feature alongside Moutinho and Veloso in the game. Bento will use his favoured 4-3-3 formation with Ronaldo and Nani supporting Postiga upfront.

Although Ronaldo will be Portugal’s biggest threat in attack, the role of Moutinho in this side cannot be undermined. The 27-year-old made a hattrick of assists in the match against Luxembourg and has been in good form for Monaco since his big money move to the French club. His ability to create will be crucial for Paulo Bento’s side.

Expected starting line-up (4-3-3): Patricio (GK); Pereira, Pepe, Alves, Coentrao; Moutinho, Veloso, Meireles; Nani, Postiga, Ronaldo

Sweden
Sweden have had a fairly satisfactory qualification campaign and have done what was expected of them – came second behind Germany in Group C. Like Portugal, they won six of their 10 qualification fixtures, but the fact that they managed to score seven goals in their two games against the German side would have given Erik Hamren a lot of confidence about his side’s attacking prowess ahead of this fixture.

Sweden are coming into this game on the back of a 3-5 defeat at the hands of Germany at Stockholm in their last qualification fixture. The home side took a 2-0 lead in the first half, but ended up losing the game in the second half despite a wonderful brace from Hysen. But the performance showed that they can compete with best even without Zlatan in the team, although Germany did field a fairly weakened side.

Erik Hamren has a fully fit squad to choose from ahead of this game and he is expected to make a lot of the changes to the side he fielded against Germany in their last game. There is also expected to be a change in tactics, where Hamren will switch to a more conservative 4-5-1 in the first leg away from home. He has used Elmander and Ibrahimovic together upfront, but the former is likely to be dropped to the bench for this game.

Mikael Lustig will replace Pierre Bengtsson at the right back, while Per Nilsson Antonsson will start in the center of the defence. Kacaniklic, who has been used on the left, will move to the right wing with Pontus Wernbloom starts on the other wing. Rasmus Elm, Sebastian Larsson and Anders Svensson will start at the center of the park. Sweden’s main threat, Zlatan Ibrahimovic will lead the line along with leading the hope for getting a positive result in this game.

Expected starting line-up (4-5-1): Isaksson (GK); Lustig, Antonsson, Nilsson, Olsson; Kacaniklic, Elm, Larsson, Svensson, Wernbloom; Ibrahimovic

Players to watch out for: Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal); Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden)

Prediction: Portugal 2-1 Sweden

Blast from the past

Friday 8 November 2013

Chelsea Vs West Brom Match Preview | Stats, Team News & Key Men

José Mourinho will be reunited with Steve Clarke on Saturday as Chelsea play hosts to West Bromwich Albion at Stamford Bridge at 3:00pm.

Clarke, 50, worked as Mourinho’s assistant during the Portuguese’s first stint as the Blues boss from the years 2004 to 2007 but this is the first time the two, who won several trophies together including two Premier League titles, will meet as opposing managers on the touchline.

Mourinho, who was critical of his Chelsea side that lost 2-0 away against Newcastle United in their last league outing, got the response he wanted in midweek with a comfortable 3-0 win over Schalke in the UEFA Champions League group-stages, whereas the Baggies will be hoping to extend the recent run of form which has saw them lose just once in their last five matches.

 

Team News

West Brom will travel to London without Ben Foster (foot), Billy Jones (leg), Nicolas Anelka (groin) and Zoltán Gera (hamstring), but both Victor Anichebe and Scott Sinclair (both hamstring) have returned to training this week and could make the bench.
Fernando Torres (leg) and Ryan Bertrand (unspecified) both picked up injuries before the Schalke game and are also expected to sit out of this weekend’s clash, whilst Marco Van Ginkel (knee) still remains a long-term absentee.

 

Head-to-Head: Last Five Meetings

Chelsea 1-0 West Bromwich Albion – 2nd March 2013 (Premier League)
West Bromwich Albion 2-1 Chelsea – 17th November 2012 (Premier League)
West Bromwich Albion 1-0 Chelsea – 3rd March 2012 (Premier League)
Chelsea 2-1 West Bromwich Albion – 20th August 2011 (Premier League)
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Chelsea – 16th April 2011 (Premier League)

 

Mourinho v Clarke: Possible Team Line-Ups


 

Key Man – Gary Cahill (Chelsea)

Since Mourinho waltzed back onto the Chelsea scene this summer, John Terry has been a pivotal figure in his plans so far by starting every single Premier League game, and also opening his goalscoring account for the season with a header against Tottenham Hotspur in September.

Whilst Mourinho is willing to drop anybody who he believes isn’t working hard enough for a starting berth, both Gary Cahill and David Luiz have recently been locked in a battle to try and secure the remaining spot alongside Terry – with Cahill’s solid performance against Schalke on Wednesday potentially being a route for him to get the nod over his Brazilian team-mate against West Brom.
Cahill, who won 75% (3) of his four tackles, made two interceptions and also recovered the ball nine times against the German outfit, has so far won 78% of his aerial 50/50 duels and completed 86.9% of his passes in the league, compared to Luiz’s 60% aerial success and 84.2% pass completion.
The England international, who has helped Chelsea to victory in the last three games he has started in all competitions, will be a key player to watch, should he start the game, in order to see whether he can cope with West Brom’s power from set pieces succesfully and perhaps nail down his permanent role in the starting line-up in the process.

 

Key Man – Youssouf Mulumbu (West Bromwich Albion)

With a place in the top ten up for grabs should West Brom walk away with something against Chelsea this weekend, the evergreen Youssouf Mulumbu will be a vital player in the Midlands club’s pursuit of a positive result for various reasons.

In the 2-0 win over Crystal Palace at the Hawthorns last weekend, Mulumbu produced another top display by making a stupendous 12 ball recoveries and five interceptions to shield his defence and ultimately stop Palace playing their passing game alongside James Morrison on the day.
The 26-year-old has won 76.1% of his 21 tackles at the moment, with a tackle coming every 43 minutes on average, whilst the Congo international also boasts an 84.9% pass completion rate.
Mulumbu carries the fundamental importance of effectively breaking up the play against Chelsea, doing all he can to prevent their abundance of quality in attack from creating goalscoring chances, whilst also feeding balls through to the likes of Stéphane Sessègnon for him to then link the midfield with the attack.

 

Prediction

Games between these two sides have been relatively tight in the last few fixtures, with only five goals coming in the last three occasions, but the creative flair and exuberance that Chelsea contain in the final third could be the difference maker in the end.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 West Bromwich Albion


Friday 1 November 2013

Arsenal Vs Liverpool Preview | Team News, Stats & Key Players

Arsenal have been the in-form team of the Premier League so far this season and so it is no surprise that the Gunners find themselves at the top of the table. On Saturday, they will be taking on another in-form team, when they play a resurgent Liverpool at the Emirates.

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These two clubs have, so far, benefited the most from the upheaval at Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United, but have also faced criticism that aside from having one game each against the so-called big clubs, neither team has faced a difficult challenge. This will be a chance for both sides to prove their doubters wrong and show that they really do belong where they currently sit in the league table.

Team News

Mikel Arteta will be available for Arsenal, after serving his one match ban for the red card he received at Crystal Palace against Chelsea in the league cup on Tuesday. Thomas Vermaelen will likely be dropped to the bench again after falling behind Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker in the pecking order.

Phillippe Coutinho will be in line to make his return to the Liverpool squad on Saturday, after spending over a month out injured because of shoulder surgery after their game against Swansea. It may still be too early for Jose Enrique but we should find out more when Brendan Rodgers holds his pre-match press conference.

Interesting Statistics

Both Arsenal and Liverpool have only lost one league match this season, against Aston Villa and Southampton respectively.

Arsenal have not lost to Liverpool since August 2011, although this was also at the Emirates.
Arsenal have only lost once to Liverpool at the Emirates.

Liverpool’s strike partnership of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge has been the most effective in the league so far this season, scoring 16 goals between them.

The two strikers also lead the league goal scoring charts, with Sturridge on 8 and Suarez on 6.
The last time the two sides met towards the end of last season, it finished 2-2.

Key Players

Ozil’s creativity
Arsenal – Mesut Ozil
Ozil has undoubtedly been the outstanding transfer of the Premier League this season. He has made a huge impact on Arsenal’s ability to get into goalscoring positions, and has already created 18 chances. This doesn’t include his three assists, although it is worth noting that only one of these has come from open play. He is creating a chance every 25 minutes on average which means Liverpool will have to be on their guard to prevent him from creating opportunities for his team-mates. While he has only scored two goals from eight shots, he has a shooting accuracy of 88% which is great for a midfielder. He will have a big part to play in this game.

Suarez’ goal attempts
Liverpool – Luis Suarez
Suarez has been deadly in front of goal in the four league games he has played for the Reds so far this season. He currently sits second in the leading goal scorer table with six goals, three of which he scored in last week’s game against West Brom. He has played 359 minutes of football in the Premier League at an average of 60 minutes per goal. He has attempted 20 shots on goal, with 12 of them on target, giving him an accuracy of 60%. He is also doing well in the creativity department, creating nine chances for his team-mates, seven of which were from open play that also includes an assist. There is no doubt that Arsenal will have to pay particular attention to the Uruguayan on Saturday.

Prediction

Arsenal and Liverpool have both been in fine form so far this season, scoring plenty of goals between them. However, both teams don’t have the best defences and that could be a big factor in this game. Arsenal have a great record against Liverpool at the Emirates, but it would be misguided to rule out the attacking threat of Suarez and Sturridge. I think the game will be a high-scoring draw and finish 2-2.

Tuesday 29 October 2013

Arsenal v Chelsea – Team News, Possible Starting Lineups,Tactics And Prediction

Arsenal FC host Chelsea FC in the 4th round League Cup clash at the Emirates, in what promises to be another exciting London derby.

Arsenal have made a flying start to the season and currently lead the Premier League table, with a two points advantage over Chelsea. The Gunners have lost just once in their last 14 fixtures in all competitions and are now being considered as serious title challengers this season. The League Cup still remains one of their best possibilities to win silverware and end the long drought; it is one trophy that has eluded Arsene Wenger during his long stint at the club.

Arsenal are coming into this match on the back of a 2-0 victory over Norwich as Olivier Giroud and Mikel Arteta got on the score sheet. In their last League Cup fixture Arsenal travelled to face West Bromwich Albion and ended up winning the game on penalties. The game ended 1-1 in fulltime with Saido Berahino cancelling out Thomas Eisfeld’s opener.

Chelsea are currently second in the points table and are currently in eye-catching form. They have recovered well from the three consecutive defeats they suffered since their loss to Bayern Munich in the Super Cup. They are currently on a five match winning streak and are undefeated in their last eight matches.

The Blues are coming into this game on the back of a big win against Manchester City. It was perhaps their most important game of the season so far and Jose Mourinho’s men showed enough determination to grab a crucial victory. In their last League Cup match they got a comfortable win over Swindon Town as Fernando Torres and Ramires scored for the away side.

Interestingly Chelsea have had the upper hand over Arsenal in recent meetings between these two sides. Arsenal’s last win over Chelsea came in 2011 when Robin van Persie scored a wonderful hat-trick at Stamford Bridge. The last meeting between Arsenal and Chelsea in a knockout tournament came in the 2009 FA Cup fixture when Didier Drogba scored a memorable late winner.

Arsenal FC – Team News, Lineup And Formation

Arsene Wenger has a host of injury concerns ahead of this fixture as he has had for most of the season so far. Yaya Sanogo, Abou Diaby, Lukas Podolski, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain are all out of contention for this game, while Mathieu Flamini, who was substituted in the opening ten minutes of the game against Norwich with a groin injury, is the latest addition to that list. The Frenchman is expected to be out for 2-3 weeks. Mikel Arteta, who was shown a red card in the last match, will also serve his suspension in this game.

Arsene Wenger is expected to make as many as nine changes to the starting line-up that was fielded against Norwich in the weekend. Fabianski will replace Szczesny in goal while Monreal, Thomas Vermaelen and Carl Jenkinson will start in the defence alongside Koscielny. With both Flamini and Arteta out of contention, Wenger will have revert back to the pairing of Wilshere and Ramsey in the pivot in front of the defence.

Nicklas Bendtner will lead the line up front as Giroud is rested for this game, while Gnabry and Rosicky will start along with Cazorla behind him. Ozil will start from the bench in this match as Wenger looks to rotate his squad.

While Wenger has enough depth in the attacking third to make these changes without hugely affecting the quality, it is in the defensive half where they might struggle. Chelsea are also expected to field a second string side, but the Blues’ second choice attackers are more than handy. Vermaelen hasn’t been a regular in the side so his form and match fitness will be tested in this game, while Jenkinson has looked shaky defensively whenever he has started on the right.

The absence of Flamini and Arteta could also prove to be a big miss against Chelsea as neither Wilshere or Ramsey are defensively discipline enough to play in the role of a holding midfielder. They will have to be careful about not exposing the back four to the Chelsea attack too often.

Possible Starting Line up [4-3-3]: Fabianski (GK); Jenkinson, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Monreal; Wilshere, Ramsey; Gnabry, Rosicky, Cazorla; Bendtner

Chelsea FC – Team News, Lineup And Formation

Unlike Arsene Wenger, Jose Mourinho doesn’t have any major injury concern to deal with at the moment. Marko van Ginkel remains the only player on the side-line due to injury ahead of this game.

Mourinho has been furious with the way Chelsea’s game has been scheduled just 48 hours after their big match against Manchester City on Sunday. Earlier he has threatened to field his youth team in protest, but has later back down from the stance and said that the club will have respect the fans. But despite this, none of the players used against Man City is expected to be fielded against Arsenal. Mourinho has enough depth in his squad to use a fairly strong second string side.

Veteran goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer will replace Petr Cech in goal while Cesar Azpilicueta and Ryan Bertrand will replace Ivanovic and Ashley Cole respectively. David Luiz, who has received some criticism for his recent performances, will start in this game alongside young center back Tomas Kalas.

Lampard and Ramires will be rested for this game and the duo will be replaced by the pairing of Mikel and Essien. In the attacking third of the midfield, Juan Mata, who started on the bench against Manchester City, will start along with Willian and De Bruyne. Upfront it will come down between Samuel Eto’o or Demba Ba to lead the line.

Chelsea have a relatively in experienced back line for this game and the midfield will have to protect them. The other problem that the Blues might face is the fact that neither Mikel nor Essien is known for their passing ability – this might slow down their transfer of possession from defence to attack. Juan Mata will be the key as the Spaniard can drop deep and help in building up play from the back.

Possible Starting Line-Up [4-2-3-1]: Schwarzer (GK); Azpilicueta, Luiz, Kalas, Bertrand; Mikel, Essien; De Bruyne, Mata, Willian; Eto’o

Player To Watch Out For

Juan Mata (Chelsea FC)
The Spaniard once again missed out in the match against Manchester City and he has started in only four league matches so far this season. Juan Mata has point to prove in this game. With Arsenal playing Wilshere and Ramsey in the pivot, there might be a lot of space for him to exploit in-between the lines of the defence and the midfield. Also Chelsea will mostly depend on him to orchestrate the build-up play in this game. His performance against Arsenal will have a huge impact on the outcome of this match.

Prediction

Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea [Penalties]

Boyed by the home support and derby atmosphere Arsenal are expected come out all guns glazing. The home side will look to score early in this game and Chelsea will have to be organised to handle it. But the away side will slowly grow into the game and look to hurt Arsenal on the break using their pace upfront. It will be a close game with plenty of goals and one which might be decided on penalties.

Friday 25 October 2013

Barcelona v Real Madrid (27 October 2013 ~ 00:00) Preview | Probable Lineups, Missing Players, Team News, Prediction


Probable Lineups


Missing Players

Team News

 Barcelona
  • Lionel Messi made his first starting appearance following his injury lay-off against Milan in midweek and immediately returned to scoring ways.
  • Jordi Alba remains injured, which means Adriano is likely to keep his place at left back.
  • After resting him midweek, Gerardo Martino could opt for Carles Puyol to partner Gerard Pique in defense. Otherwise Javier Mascherano will keep his place.
 Real Madrid
  • Madrid have few injury worries, though they will regret Xabi Alonso not being fit in time for their showdown with their fiercest rivals.
  • Gareth Bale is expected to make just his second starting appearance for his new club following his world record transfer in the summer. The Wales international could take the place of Angel Di Maria on the right flank.
  • Despite getting on the score-sheet for France recently, Karim Benzema's struggles at Madrid continue. With yet another below par performance on Wednesday night, he has again become the centre of debate. Nevertheless, Carlo Ancelotti is being tipped to start him at the Camp Nou.
  • Ancelotti is set to continue his goalkeeping policy as Diego Lopez will return to the side in place of Iker Casillas.
  • Along with Lopez, Isco and Daniel Carvajal are the other two changes to the side that face Juventus, with Alvaro Arbeloa and Sami Khedira making way for them.

Prediction

  • Barcelona's form has dipped in the past week, only managing to draw away to Osasuna and Milan during the week. As a result, they have allowed Real Madrid to close the gap between them at the top to just three points.
  • Though Ancelotti's Real Madrid side are yet to fully convince everyone, they will travel to the Camp Nou in confident mood after defeating Juventus in the Champions League. They will also be buoyed by their recent record away to Barcelona of two wins, two draws and just one defeat in five games. They have also managed to score at least two goals in each of their last six visits.
  • This will be the first Clasico for Barcelona's new star Neymar and he will keen to make an impression. The same can be said of Real Madrid's mega-money signing, Gareth Bale. Meanwhile, this will be the first meeting between new bosses Ancelotti and Martino.
  • Playing at home, Barcelona will start as slight favorites though the visitors will know that a loss could be a massive blow to their title hopes. Consequently, as ever when it comes to these games, it should be a highly intense and intriguing affair. 

Monday 14 October 2013

Belgium U21 vs Italy U21: Betting Preview & Prediction (European Championship U21 - October 15, 2013)

BELGIUM U21 V ITALY U21: PREDICTIONS


Belgium u21 side are pretty much going about their business in the same fashion as their senior team. Four games has yielded four wins with 7 goals scored and just 1 conceded. With a 3-1 win already in the bag over Italy in Prieta its looking good for Belgium. With a solid side consisting of a team in the mould of the seniors its no surprise to see them doing so well.

Italy u21 have only played twice but already they are 9 points behind this rampant Belgian side. After a home 3-1 loss to the group leaders Italy recovered well and beat Cyprus 2-0 in Nicosia. No real standout names for the Italians who are more a workmanlike side than usual.

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BELGIUM U21 V ITALY U21: STATISTICS    

Last 10 matches


Team Statistics Analysis


Performance in UEFA U21 Championship


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EXPECTED LINEUPS

Friday 11 October 2013

England v Montenegro: Gerrard, Wilshere to Start, Cole Injured – Lineups, Team News And Prediction



England battle against Montenegro at the Wembley in a crucial Group H World Cup 2014 Qualifier on Friday. A battle it is. England have not been exciting in their qualification campaign so far and would look to win Friday’s game to ensure they qualify automatically for Brazil. Anything less and they face the possibility of watching and waiting for other teams to decide their fate. Montenegro are one of the teams in the group with a chance of qualifying still alive. If they draw against England at the Wembley and beat minnows Moldova in their last group game, they will have a very good chance of finishing second at least in the group, giving them a chance of qualifying for Brazil.

England

Now is the time for the English to bury all excuses and turn out a good performance to earn their place in Brazil. So far, England have been ineffectual, only beating minnows Moldova and San Marino by big margins. Friday’s game gives them the opportunity to beat a Montenegro side that has proved to be very difficult opponents for the English in the past. Their two previous encounters in Euro 2012 qualifiers ended in draws, the latter of which involved Wayne Rooney being sent off. Rooney will hope to start this game though in the hole, behind Daniel Sturridge. Tom Cleverley has usually filled that space behind the striker and has been ordinary. Rooney will hope to be more creative than his Manchester United teammate and also to track back and help out in midfield. His comeback means Rickie Lambert will be relegated to the bench.

Baines will play left back in place
of the injured Ashley Cole
Left back Ashley Cole is set to miss out through injury and Everton’s Leighton Baines looks set to grab the opportunity with both hands. Kieran Gibbs will be his replacement on the bench. Roy Hodgson has a decision to make in midfield on whether to play Michael Carrick or Frank Lampard. Carrick has performed well in the Premier League consistently, but Hodgson is thought to play it safe and stick with the experience that Lampard provides. Lampard will be partnered by Jack Wilshere, who will use his pace to harry opposition players into making mistakes and giving the ball away cheaply. Wilshere is seen as the future of English football and Hodgson will want him to be at his alert best to keep the play ticking for the English from midfield.

Skipper Steven Gerrard will then have to be accommodated as a left attacking midfielder, a role he is familiar with. Gerrard will look to build attacks as well as track back to stop the Montenegro midfielders from dominating proceedings. James Milner should come in for the injured Theo Walcott on the right with Daniel Sturridge completing the attacking line. Danny Welbeck is fit but is expected to be a substitute. The centre half pairing of Phil Jagielka and Gary Cahill will be persisted with as they would look to keep a Montenegro attack without Juventus’s Mirko Vucinic at bay, while Kyle Walker will make the most of Glen Johnson’s absence through injury as he cements himself in Roy Hodgson’s future plans for England.

Hodgson also has talented Tottenham wide man Andros Townsend at his disposal, but the former Liverpool boss is expected to play safe and go with established international players for this game. Hodgson has in the past displayed a tendency to be pragmatic and cautious, often naming starting line ups to counter opposition strengths than to play to his own team’s positives. Joe Hart will be the undisputed first choice between the posts. Roy Hodgson’s men are on an eight match unbeaten run.

Expected Line Up: Hart; Walker, Cahill, Jagielka, Baines; Milner, Lampard, Wilshere, Gerrard; Rooney, Sturridge

Montenegro

Manager Branko Brnovic knows his Montenegro side still have a shot at qualifying for Brazil and will prepare his side well for the tough test at Wembley. Montenegro have a good recent record against England, having been unbeaten in both those games and Brnovic will hope history repeats itself on Friday. Brnovic will have to get a result without Juventus striker Mirko Vucinic who was injured in the Champions League clash with Galatasaray. This would put more pressure on Manchester City new boy Stevan Jovetic, who will be expected to cause the England defenders a few problems.

Apart from Jovetic, midfielder Elsad Zverotic knows about England plying his trade for Fulham, while former Premier League players Simon Vukcevic of Blackburn and Stefan Savic of Manchester City complete the English connection. FC Seoul striker Dejan Damjanovic will likely replace Vucinic up front. Damjanovic got the goal against in the reverse fixture that was drawn 1-1 in Podgorica in March and will look to repeat his feats in this game if given the chance.

Montenegro may also face this difficult game without centre back Marko Basa, midfielder Miodrag Pekovic and goalkeeper Mladen Bozovic, who are major doubts ahead of the game. Montenegro are without a win in their last five games but will do their best to prevent England from scoring at the Wembley.

Expected Line Up: Poleksic; Jovanovic, Pavicevic, Savic, Volkov; Zverotic, Novakovic, Vukcevic; Kasalica, Damjanovic, Jovetic

Player to watch out for

Wayne Rooney
Rooney will be the key man
The Manchester United man will look to bury his past ghosts of his sending off against these opponents in their Euro 2012 qualifier. Rooney returns to the England team to take his place just behind Daniel Sturridge. Rooney tops the scoring charts in Group H with five goals. He has played in the hole at Manchester United very well and will be looking to link up with the inform Daniel Sturridge, who has got six goals from seven matches for Liverpool in the Premier League this season, to bamboozle the Montenegro defenders. Rooney is key not only for his ability to link up with Sturridge but also because he is a threat from dead ball situations, having scored a few beautifully struck free kicks this season. He will relish testing the Montenegro defence with his curling free kick efforts. Rooney will also track back more actively than Tom Cleverley who never really shone in the role behind the striker in Qualification.

Prediction

England 1-0 Montenegro

Germany v Ireland match preview (World Cup qualifier - October 12, 2013)

Germany are almost assured with a spot in Brazil next year, but they need to get past the challenge of Ireland at home to complete the task. Find here the best Germany v Rep. Of Ireland betting preview, tips, and probable lineups.

GERMANY v IRELAND: MATCH PREVIEW
Germany will qualify for the World Cup if they avoid defeat against Republic of Ireland. They go into this game following successive 3-0 victories against Faroe Islands and Austria and with only one defeat in their last 13 – that coming in a friendly against USA.

The German side will have to collect a positive result without a number of attacking players, including Mario Gomez, Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Marco Reus - all of whom are injured. Both Lars and Sven Bender have been forced to pull out of the squad due to injuries while Marcell Jansen, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Max Kruse are all expected to start against the Republic of Ireland.

Giovanni Trapattoni paid the ultimate price for Ireland’s failed 2014 World Cup qualification campaign when a 1-0 defeat to Austria last month resulted in the termination of his contract. Noel King takes charge for the interim period.

Ireland have lost a few players for this one, with Jon Walters and Keiren Westwood missing the match, along with Hull midfielders Robbie Brady. They also have Richard Dunne and John O’Shea suspended for this one. St Ledger and Aston Villa's Ciaran Clark are the leading candidates to take over in central defence in Germany, although Damien Delaney and Stephen Kelly have both played there in the past. Captain Robbie Keane missed training earlier today with an ankle problem, but it is not expected to rule him out of the encounter in Cologne.

The Irish were thumped 6-1 in Dublin earlier in the group by Germany with Marco Reuss and Toni Kroos each scoring twice.

GERMANY v IRELAND: PROBABLE LINEUPS
Germany (4-3-3): Neuer; Lahm, Jansen, Boateng, Mertesacker; Khedira, Kroos, Schweinsteiger; Ozil, Muller, Kruse.
Ireland (4-4-2): Forde; wilson, Coleman, St. Leger, Clark; Green, McClean, McCarthy, Pilkington; Long, Keane.

GERMANY v IRELAND: TEAM FORM
Germany
11-Sep-2013    Faroe Islands 0 - Germany 3    WCQE
07-Sep-2013    Germany 3 - Austria 0    WCQE
15-Aug-2013    Germany 3 - Paraguay 3    FR
03-Jun-2013    United States 4 - Germany 3    FR
30-May-2013    Ecuador 2 - Germany 4    FR

Ireland Republic
11-Sep-2013    Austria 1 - Ireland Republic 0    WCQE
07-Sep-2013    Ireland Republic 1 - Sweden 2    WCQE
15-Aug-2013    Wales 0 - Ireland Republic 0    FR
12-Jun-2013    Spain 2 - Ireland Republic 0    FR
08-Jun-2013    Ireland Republic 3 - Faroe Islands 0    WCQE

Thursday 10 October 2013

England v Montenegro: Betting preview & Predictions (World Cup qualifier - October 12, 2013)

The qualification rounds are still in process for FIFA World Cup 2014. England will face Montenegro in its net match of World Cup qualifier. Some of teams have qualified but half of teams still struggling for Brazil ticket. This match will be live broadcast from England’s number one & last host stadium of UEFA Champions league stadium which is Wembley. Match date is finalized & it will be played on 12th October, 2013. Kick-off timing are fixed at 3:00 am (GMT+8)

ENGLAND v MONTENEGRO: MATCH PREVIEW
There are just three points separating the top four teams in Uefa World Cup Qualification Group H with England currently top of the log, a point clear of Ukraine and Montenegro with Poland a further two points in arrears. With Ukraine and Poland meeting in Kharkov on Friday night, it might be that the Three Lions are virtually qualified by beating the Montenegrins.

The Three Lions have been unbeaten in their eight games played, conceding a miserly three goals, but four drawn matches mean that their position at the top of the points table isn’t as solidified as it should be. Coach Roy Hodgson’s men played two qualifiers last month. In the first one against Moldova at home, they easily won 4-0 but had to settle for a 0-0 draw away in Ukraine.

 Ashley Cole will miss the meeting with Montenegro after suffering a rib injury in Chelsea’s defeat of Norwich on Sunday. Arsenal’s Kieran Gibbs has been called up as his replacement, but Leighton Baines is set to replace Cole in the starting lineup while Daniel Sturridge and Wayne Rooney are set to return to first-team duties after missing the last round of international fixtures through injury.

Montenegro really need victory here if they are to give themselves a decent chance of progressing to Brazil, though – if other results go their way – a draw may suffice to see them to a second place finish and a possible play off. They have drawn two and lost one of their three most recent qualifiers and another defeat here would almost certainly take their destiny out of their own hands.

Coach Branko Brnović will be without key quartet Mirko Vucinic, Mladen Bozovic, Marko Basa and Milorad Pekovic for the trip to Wembley due to injury. Up front, Fatos Beqiraj is expected to partner Stevan Jovetic in the absence of captain Vucinic.

This will be the fourth time that England have played Montenegro and on each of the other three encounters, the best that the Three Lions could manage was a draw. The two teams met in Podgorica in March and played out a 1-1 draw, with England failing to build on Wayne Rooney’s early goal.

ENGLAND v MONTENEGRO HEAD TO HEAD
ENGLAND v MONTENEGRO: PROBABLE LINEUPS
England (4-2-3-1): Hart; Baines, Jagielka, Cahill, Walker; Wilshere, Gerrard; Welbeck, Milner, Rooney; Sturridge
Montenegro(4-4-2): Poleksic; Jovanovic, Dzudovic, Savic, Volkov; Zverotic, Drincic, Krkotic, Boskovic; Jovetic, Beqiraj

ENGLAND v MONTENEGRO: TEAM FORM
England
11-Sep-2013    Ukraine 0 - England 0    WCQE
07-Sep-2013    England 4 - Moldova 0    WCQE
15-Aug-2013    England 3 - Scotland 2    FR
03-Jun-2013    Brazil 2 - England 2    FR
30-May-2013    England 1 - Ireland Republic 1    FR

Montenegro
07-Sep-2013    Poland 1 - Montenegro 1    WCQE
14-Aug-2013    Belarus 1 - Montenegro 1    FR
08-Jun-2013    Montenegro 0 - Ukraine 4    WCQE
27-Mar-2013    Montenegro 1 - England 1    WCQE
23-Mar-2013    Moldova 0 - Montenegro 1    WCQE

Wednesday 9 October 2013

Blackjack for Dummies

Blackjack is most commonly a gambling game, originally known by the name of its highest point value: twenty-one. Blackjack is one of the easiest card games. It’s a real “hit”, even with beginners.

Blackjack Basics
The game of Blackjack is contested between a player and the dealer and is tracked by points, wherein the player must reach 21 or more without exceeding the number and beat the dealer’s total in order to win. If a player or dealer exceeds 21, it’s known as a “bust”. Here’s a Blackjack breakdown:
  • Dealing - Cards are dealt facedown, and the player is immediately allowed to view his or her hand.
  • Hitting – A hit (or “hitting”) is a signal to the dealer that you wish to take another card. A player can hit after their hand is dealt.
  • Standing – If a player “stands”, then he or she is satisfied with the current hand. There is a specific “standing” gesture that signifies this to the dealer in land-based casinos, whereas in online casinos it’s as simple as clicking the appropriate button.
  • DoublingThis refers to doubling down on a bet. Some casinos determine their own unique rules regarding doubling; however, players can typically double after their first two cards.
  • SplittingYou may splittwo cards of the same rank or value into two separate hands. However, you must wager the same amount on the second hand as you’ve made on the first.
House Rules
Blackjack is frequently played in-house at a casino; however, it’s now quite common to play Blackjack online. The rules for Blackjack will depend on the house (or virtual house) as well as the game type. A casino or virtual Blackjack game may use up to eight decks of cards.

In land-based casinos, the house may also choose how the cards are dealt: hand shuffling or continuous shuffling machines. Online table games frequently use shuffling algorithms known as Random Number Generators.

Hand Values
So, how does it all add up? The cards all have point values, as follows:
  • Face Value All numbered cards, 2–10 are valued by the number. Suit does not affect the value.
  • Face Cards Kings, Queens, and Jacks all equal 10, respectively.
  • Aces Blackjack players may value an ace as either 1 or 11.
When it comes to a hand, there are two types: “hard” or “soft”. A hard hand has a concrete value; therefore, the hand doesn’t contain an ace, which can change a hand value in the two ways stated above. A soft hand contains an ace; therefore, the value of the hand may change based on how the player values the ace.

Blackjack Strategy
Blackjack is all about the numbers. Learning to recognize when it’s best to hit and/or stand is the best strategy to take. For example, a hand value of 12–16 could go either way if you decide to hit – remember you don’t want to exceed 21. However, a value of 17 or higher is generally a good hand to stand with since it is fairly high and hitting again is likely to cause you to bust.

Like any game, the more you play, the faster you’ll learn. If you're looking for a Blackjack game, S188 Casino is the right place for you to start with.

Friday 4 October 2013

Inter Milan v Roma: predictions, tips, odds, free bets and streaming (Serie A - October 6, 2013 ~ 02:45 GMT+8)

Roma will look to maintain their 100% start to the Serie A season on Sunday evening when they face Inter Milan at "Stadio S.Siro". Here you can find a complete Inter v Roma betting preview, probable lineup, and team form.

INTER MILAN v ROMA: MATCH PREVIEW  

Inter Milan are unbeaten this term, with a record of four wins and two draws leaving the Nerazzurri four points behind Roma heading into this clash. They leaked points on draws to Juventus and Cagliari.

Mazzarri will choose the starting eleven he trust more: a 3-5-1-1 with Alvarez and Palacio upfront (and Milito or Icardi ready to play in case of need). Taider and Kovacic will be in contention for a spot in midfield while Zanetti and Chivu are the long-term injuries.

Roma, under the management of Frenchman Rudi Garcia, are enjoying their best ever start to a Serie A campaign with six wins from six league matches and sit two points clear of Napoli and Juventus at the top of the table. Anyway, Roma have yet to take on top opposition in Serie A. Fourth-placed Inter Milan at the weekend will be the first occasion they do and the first real measure of Roma.

Despite some high profile departures from the Italian capital during the summer, in particular Erik Lamela to Tottenham Hotspur, it has not seemed to have had an ill-effect to the team. Defensively, they look rock solid having just conceded the one goal with only Parma able to breach their defence.

Bradley and Maicon will miss this important match through injury while Adem Ljaijc (three goals in 6 six appearances) is doubtful. Rudi Garcia should confirm the same starting eleven we saw against Bologna last week.

Roma have fared rather well against Inter Milan. Last year, they beat Inter twice in Coppa Italia and in Serie A they are unbeaten in their last four meetings with three wins and a draw. Last year, they managed a 1-1 draw on the away and a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture.

INTER MILAN v ROMA: PROBABLE LINEUPS 

Inter (3-5-1-1): Handanovic; Juan, Ranocchia, Campagnaro; Taider, Cambiasso, Nagatomo, GUarin, Jonathan; Alvarez; Palacio.
Roma (4-3-3): De Sanctis; Leandro Castan, Benatia, Torosidis, Balzaretti; Strootman, Pjanic, De Rossi; Florenzi, Gervinho, Totti


INTER MILAN v ROMA: TEAM FORM 

Inter Milan
Sep 29, 2013    Cagliari 1 - Inter Milan 1    ITA1
Sep 26, 2013    Inter Milan 2 - Fiorentina 1    ITA1
Sep 22, 2013    Sassuolo 0 - Inter Milan 7    ITA1
Sep 14, 2013    Inter Milan 1 - Juventus 1    ITA1
Sep 1, 2013    Catania 0 - Inter Milan 3    ITA1

Roma
Sep 29, 2013    Roma 5 - Bologna 0    ITA1
Sep 25, 2013    Sampdoria 0 - Roma 2    ITA1
Sep 22, 2013    Roma 2 - Lazio 0    ITA1
Sep 16, 2013    Parma 1 - Roma 3    ITA1
Sep 1, 2013    Roma 3 - Hellas Verona 0    ITA1

Wednesday 2 October 2013

PSG vs. Benfica Preview

Paris Saint-Germain and Benfica both opened Champions League play in Group C with victories. PSG went on the road and crushed Olympiakos, while the Aguias scored a home win over Anderlecht. Now, the group leaders will face off in Paris.

Led by Edinson Cavani and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSG are off to a very strong start to the new campaign. They remain unbeaten through nine matches across Ligue 1 and Champions League play, elevating hopes for the big-spending club.

To keep pace with PSG, Benfica will need to rebound quickly from a frustrating Primeira Liga draw with Belenenses at home. If the club brings similar form to the Parc des Princes, PSG should be on cruise control by the start of the second half.

With that in mind, let's examine all the key information for the UCL clash, followed by a breakdown of the top storyline and a match prediction.

Top Storyline: Which Club Will Take Control of Group C?
Paris Saint-Germain have made steady progress in recent years. They finally returned to the pinnacle of Ligue 1 last season, winning the title by 12 points. Now, the side looks ready to carry that success over to European play.

The addition of Cavani can't be overstated. While Ezequiel Lavezzi provided a serviceable option alongside Ibrahimovic, the Uruguayan superstar brings another world-class forward into the mix and takes a lot of pressure off the Swedish striker.

Although the pair is still building chemistry, the upside is tremendous, and they have already brought a new level of attacking presence to the pitch. PSG must lean heavily on the attack against Benfica, which will likely hunker down defensively and rely on counterattacks on the road.

The Aguias have the ability to play that style of match extremely well. Luisao leads a steady back line, Lazar Markovic and Oscar Cardozo headline an underrated attack, and Enzo Perez serves as the pivot man in the middle.

If they can shut down the PSG attack in the early going and start to frustrate Ibrahimovic and Co., those counterattacking opportunities should become available as their Ligue 1 foes get more aggressive. So the match for Benfica comes down to surviving that initial surge.

While they would love to capture all three points, even a road draw would be a great result. On the flip side, PSG can take firm control of the group by winning at home.

Prediction
Benfica might have been looking ahead to the clash with PSG before taking on Belenenses, but the result is still troublesome. A club wants to head into a key match on a high note, not after a draw with a side near the bottom of the table.

Paired with PSG's continued strong form and the fact they are playing at home, Benfica's poor showing against Belenenses gives the French club the advantage. It should be able to break down the Benfica defensive wall en route to three points and a spot all alone atop Group C.

Paris Saint-Germain 2, Benfica 1

Tuesday 1 October 2013

Celti vs Barcelona (2nd October 2013) UEFA Preview & Prediction

Celti vs Barcelona
Football : UEFA Champions League
Venue: Hampden Park
Tuesday 2nd October 2013 – Kickoff time 02:45

Match Preview :


Celtic welcome Barcelona to Hampden Park tonight hoping they can repeat their heroics of last season when they managed to beat the Catalan Giants 2-1 in the group stages of the Champions League. That was achieved on November 7 last year with Lionel Messi playing and that result proved to be key in their qualification for the knockout round of the competition.

After their opening defeat to AC Milan ended with a defeat on September 18, Celtic knows it is their home games which will make or break for them if they are to progress further in the Champions League. For the record, the Scottish Champions have won seven of their last nine European fixtures at home, with the one defeat coming in the last-16 clash with Italian side Juventus last season.

Celtic will start this match after winning last weekend beating Kilmarnock 5-2 in their domestic league. That result was good to put them second in the Scottish Premiership. Barcelona, meanwhile, top La Liga with a 100% record since the start of the La Liga.

Barcelona started their Champions League with a 4-0 thrashing of Ajax but it needs to be stated they don't have the best of records in Scotland having managed only two wins and one draw from their six matches played there.


Team News :


Celtic Team News :
Celtic boss Neil Lennon could retain the same side that played against AC Milan in their first match with Anthony Stokes and Georgios Samaras both starting in attack. Scott Brown is also expected to Captain the side from midfield, but Nir Biton and Teemu Pukki are both pushing for spots in the starting eleven for this match.

Barcelona Team News :
The visitors will be without Lionel Messi for this match. The Argentine is expected to miss the next three weeks with a hamstring injury. Defensive pair Javier Mascherano and Jordi Alba are also both unavailable, meaning that Adriano and Marc Bartra should keep their place in the back four.

Cesc Fabregas is expected to be operating in the centre of the Barcelona attack with Neymar starting from the left. Alexis Sanchez and Pedro will battle it out for a place on the right for the visitors.

Possible lineups


Celtic: Forster; Matthews, Ambrose, Van Dijk, Mulgrew; Brown, Lustig, Izaguirre; Commons, Samaras, Stokes

Barcelona: Valdes; Alves, Pique, Bartra, Adriano; Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta; Neymar, Fabregas, Pedro

Prediction:


Go for Celtic and accept the 1 1/4 ball here. I just can't foresee Barcelona winning by two clear goals. They failed to do that last time even with Messi in the side, and now with him not in the side, can they win by two clear goals? I am on Celtic here.

The Statistics :


The Pick :

Celtic 1-1 Barcelona

Tuesday 24 September 2013

Which Online Gambling Strategy Will You Embrace To Become A World Class Professional Poker Player?

Online gambling is the new thing. As people are becoming less and less able or willing to go out of town to satisfy their desire to gamble a bit, the internet has become such a large force that people can actually gamble on the web. As far as what kind of gambling can be done online, just about anything goes from betting on basketball or football games, boxing matches, online slot machines, online poker or even blackjack.

Just as it is in real life, it is important to have a strategy when to comes to online gambling, especially if you have ambitions to become a world class professional poker player. Online gambling strategy guides are available at various sites throughout the World Wide Web and they provide a whole plethora of online gambling strategy tips as related to just about every niche of online gambling that there is. While it is always first and fore mostly important to trust one's own instincts when it comes to gambling it is also important to adopt a strategy and learn tricks of the trade, as you would with any other hobby. At the casino you know which tables hit the best and which casinos are more likely to pay out the larger amounts than others, but with online gambling one must adopt a strategy to ensure that too much money isn't lost. While some people are able to rely on online gambling as a form of non-reliable secondary income, without a strategy none of that would ever be possible. Online gambling games would just be a shot in the dark.

Where can you find these online gambling strategy guides? By putting in a simple search on the web, any search engine would pull up tons of online gambling strategy guides, as related to any of the various genres of gambling that are facilitated through the web. Narrowing it down to the games that you usually partake in and mastering the various techniques and strategies of those ones first is the best way to go about mastering the things that any of those online gambling strategy guides have to offer.

After a while, employing the use of these gambling guides can help you to learn some of the tricks of the trade, giving you the upper hand in the deal and helping you win more money. Of course, nobody should ever depend on gambling as a form of income and a reliable way to pay bills, but becoming a master of your trade is always a good idea if you must gamble, and the new interface that the World Wide Web has presented has truly revolutionized the way that people gamble.

Wednesday 18 September 2013

The best online casino sites

Telecommunications and the Internet market have proven to be one of the most prolific and powerful areas of the world. Online casinos have come and grown thanks to the ability to offer online gambling services, and players also have increased because of the convenience and ease of operation that represents this novelty type of gambling. Players now can play online poker with fellow enthusiasts from all around the world from the comfort of their bed, only needing a computer and an internet connection.

Choosing the best online casino

However, as any growing market, the offer of online casino sites keeps getting larger by the minute. This results in users feeling somewhat confused when choosing an online casino to play that meets their expectations. Between the most common factors when an experimented player is looking for an online casino there are: variety of tables, good distribution and supply of games , security, trajectory and awards and bonuses. As it was said above, an online casino to be a good choice needs to have a series of elements and characteristics. These are:

Games Offer

There is no point having an account in an online casino site that offers 1500 different types of slot machines but no table of blackjack. In this sense, a good and valuable casino has a good and balanced supply of games for every possible taste. Variety is a must on the online casino business and all players should always demand it.

Variety of tables

In addition to the above, there are games that operate especially in the online world because this way they can cover a larger number of tables simultaneously. Professional poker is a clear case of this, as professional poker players can operate in 3 or 5 tables at once. However, it is also imperative that the online casino offers specialized tables for beginners, experienced players and professional players.

Security

The security point at online casinos is very sensitive and valued. The better the electronic security measures that are implemented in a casino, the better the experience of their players. Also, the casino must exercise an active policy of data protection. No experience can be good if the player fears that his data may fall in the wrong hands

Background

The most experienced casinos are more likely to be better valued than the new casinos with little time on the web. On the other hand, if a casino has remained standing despite all regulations and economic crisis, this usually means that has been known to offer good services.