EPL Prediction Model: Forecasts | Arsenal & Liverpool to draw, City to Smash 5?

We’ve got a big week coming up, with a full schedule of games on Saturday and Sunday and then again in mid-week. Just this weekend’s predictions for the moment and then I’ll try to get a post up on Sunday or Monday for the next set. Partly, we’ll need to adjust for any injuries that come up on Saturday and Sunday so that the starting line-ups in the model for the mid-week round will be as accurate as possible.

I’m continuing to tune the model with a bit of cleaning up around the edges, some work to make sure that ‘big chances’ (as defined by Opta) get converted at the correct rate and also adjusting the length of matches to cope with Arsenal’s and Man City’s (in particular) very high passing frequencies. All together it should be worth an extra 2%, or 5-7 correct predictions across a season. Once you’ve got a reasonable model, you have to fight hard for every tiny improvement!

I hope there’ll be a larger update at some point this season and have quite a few upgrades on the list left to try, but every time I make a change, I simulate a full couple of seasons to see if it’s made things better or worse, so it can be a bit of slow process making improvements.

Before we dive into this week’s predictions, last week’s games were interesting. We had a modest win at the bookies, but overall I was pleased with the model’s forecasts. Here they are as a reminder…

Running through in order, Everton v Liverpool was a brilliant but crazy game that either team could have won. Maybe the model leaned too far towards Liverpool but if Allen had shot with his eyes open, we’d probably have got that one.

Arsenal beat Southampton, Newcastle beat Norwich, Stoke beat Sunderland and West Brom drew with Villa. Lovely.

Of the losing bets, Fulham to draw, Hull to draw and Man U to win were all close. With the level of randomness in football, you’re going to be wrong a lot, but it’s worrying when your predictions are nowhere near. That did happen, in West Ham vs. Chelsea where although the model picked the right winner its draw percentage was high, leading to a losing bet. That’s the single call from last week I’m really not happy about and will be investigating a bit further.

The call I’m delighted with was Man City’s big win over Tottenham. A few eyebrows were raised last Friday over the model’s 5-1 “most likely score” prediction, but it ended up being pretty accurate! Man City’s shooting accuracy at home is spectacular so far this season, but the model also adjusts opponents based on who they’re playing, which led to some poor expected individual performances for Spurs. It certainly won’t predict that everybody gets battered by Man City at home and didn’t for Swansea this week. Well, that was up until those tweaks I mentioned earlier. Now on the other hand…

Here are this week’s percentages:

And like last week, predicted possession and shooting stats for each game:

If you’re betting, I’ll be going for:

Aston Villa vs Sunderland – Home win
Cardiff City vs Arsenal – Away win
Everton vs Stoke City – Home win
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace – Home win
West Ham United vs Fulham – Draw
Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion – Home win
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United – Away win
Hull City vs Liverpool – Away win
Chelsea vs Southampton – Home win
Manchester City vs Swansea City – Home win

Portugal v Sweden : Ronaldo, Meireles And Ibrahimovic To Start – Lineups, Team News And Prediction (November 16, 2013 | 03:45)

Portugal host Sweden in the highly anticipated World Cup qualifier fixture tomorrow at Estadio da Luz. The build-up to this crucial first leg have been around Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Both the players have been in awe-inspiring form in recent times and it would be shame that only one would make it to the World Cup next year.

Sweden have a wonderful record against Portugal and have lost only three of their last 15 meetings against them. The fact that Portugal have never managed to win in Sweden in their previous seven attempts, will be a cause for concern Paulo Bento, and he knows that his side need to get a substantial lead in the first leg at home.

The last three meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw, in fact Portugal last won against Sweden in 2002, in an international friendly when Rui Costa scored a later winner to give a memorable 3-2 win over Sweden. This two legged clash promises to be an exciting battle as Portugal look to qualify for their third consecutive World Cup.

Team News and tactics
Portugal
Portugal endured a fairly disappointing qualification campaign as finished second behind Russia in Group F. Portugal were in a fairly easy group and were widely expected to win this and qualify comfortably for Brazil next year, but they left themselves in a mess after dropping points against the likes of Israel and Northern Ireland.

Portugal are coming into this match on the back of a 3-0 win over Luxembourg as Varela, Nani and Postiga got on the score-sheet for the home side. Paulo Bento was without a lot of big names for that game and is expected to make a lot of changes to the starting line-up that he fielded against Luxembourg.

Bento doesn’t have too many injury concerns to contain with ahead of this fixture. There are some doubts about the fitness of Real Madrid left back Fabio Coentrao, but he is expected to recover in time and feature against Sweden. Joao Pereira will replace Almeida at the right back, while Pepe and Bruno Alves resume their partnership at the center of the defence. Meiresles didn’t feature against Luxembourg, but the former Liverpool midfielder will feature alongside Moutinho and Veloso in the game. Bento will use his favoured 4-3-3 formation with Ronaldo and Nani supporting Postiga upfront.

Although Ronaldo will be Portugal’s biggest threat in attack, the role of Moutinho in this side cannot be undermined. The 27-year-old made a hattrick of assists in the match against Luxembourg and has been in good form for Monaco since his big money move to the French club. His ability to create will be crucial for Paulo Bento’s side.

Expected starting line-up (4-3-3): Patricio (GK); Pereira, Pepe, Alves, Coentrao; Moutinho, Veloso, Meireles; Nani, Postiga, Ronaldo

Sweden
Sweden have had a fairly satisfactory qualification campaign and have done what was expected of them – came second behind Germany in Group C. Like Portugal, they won six of their 10 qualification fixtures, but the fact that they managed to score seven goals in their two games against the German side would have given Erik Hamren a lot of confidence about his side’s attacking prowess ahead of this fixture.

Sweden are coming into this game on the back of a 3-5 defeat at the hands of Germany at Stockholm in their last qualification fixture. The home side took a 2-0 lead in the first half, but ended up losing the game in the second half despite a wonderful brace from Hysen. But the performance showed that they can compete with best even without Zlatan in the team, although Germany did field a fairly weakened side.

Erik Hamren has a fully fit squad to choose from ahead of this game and he is expected to make a lot of the changes to the side he fielded against Germany in their last game. There is also expected to be a change in tactics, where Hamren will switch to a more conservative 4-5-1 in the first leg away from home. He has used Elmander and Ibrahimovic together upfront, but the former is likely to be dropped to the bench for this game.

Mikael Lustig will replace Pierre Bengtsson at the right back, while Per Nilsson Antonsson will start in the center of the defence. Kacaniklic, who has been used on the left, will move to the right wing with Pontus Wernbloom starts on the other wing. Rasmus Elm, Sebastian Larsson and Anders Svensson will start at the center of the park. Sweden’s main threat, Zlatan Ibrahimovic will lead the line along with leading the hope for getting a positive result in this game.

Expected starting line-up (4-5-1): Isaksson (GK); Lustig, Antonsson, Nilsson, Olsson; Kacaniklic, Elm, Larsson, Svensson, Wernbloom; Ibrahimovic

Players to watch out for: Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal); Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden)

Prediction: Portugal 2-1 Sweden

Blast from the past

Chelsea Vs West Brom Match Preview | Stats, Team News & Key Men

José Mourinho will be reunited with Steve Clarke on Saturday as Chelsea play hosts to West Bromwich Albion at Stamford Bridge at 3:00pm.

Clarke, 50, worked as Mourinho’s assistant during the Portuguese’s first stint as the Blues boss from the years 2004 to 2007 but this is the first time the two, who won several trophies together including two Premier League titles, will meet as opposing managers on the touchline.

Mourinho, who was critical of his Chelsea side that lost 2-0 away against Newcastle United in their last league outing, got the response he wanted in midweek with a comfortable 3-0 win over Schalke in the UEFA Champions League group-stages, whereas the Baggies will be hoping to extend the recent run of form which has saw them lose just once in their last five matches.

 

Team News

West Brom will travel to London without Ben Foster (foot), Billy Jones (leg), Nicolas Anelka (groin) and Zoltán Gera (hamstring), but both Victor Anichebe and Scott Sinclair (both hamstring) have returned to training this week and could make the bench.

Fernando Torres (leg) and Ryan Bertrand (unspecified) both picked up injuries before the Schalke game and are also expected to sit out of this weekend’s clash, whilst Marco Van Ginkel (knee) still remains a long-term absentee.

 

Head-to-Head: Last Five Meetings

Chelsea 1-0 West Bromwich Albion – 2nd March 2013 (Premier League)

West Bromwich Albion 2-1 Chelsea – 17th November 2012 (Premier League)

West Bromwich Albion 1-0 Chelsea – 3rd March 2012 (Premier League)

Chelsea 2-1 West Bromwich Albion – 20th August 2011 (Premier League)

West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Chelsea – 16th April 2011 (Premier League)

 

Mourinho v Clarke: Possible Team Line-Ups

 

 

Key Man – Gary Cahill (Chelsea)

Since Mourinho waltzed back onto the Chelsea scene this summer, John Terry has been a pivotal figure in his plans so far by starting every single Premier League game, and also opening his goalscoring account for the season with a header against Tottenham Hotspur in September.

Whilst Mourinho is willing to drop anybody who he believes isn’t working hard enough for a starting berth, both Gary Cahill and David Luiz have recently been locked in a battle to try and secure the remaining spot alongside Terry – with Cahill’s solid performance against Schalke on Wednesday potentially being a route for him to get the nod over his Brazilian team-mate against West Brom.

Cahill, who won 75% (3) of his four tackles, made two interceptions and also recovered the ball nine times against the German outfit, has so far won 78% of his aerial 50/50 duels and completed 86.9% of his passes in the league, compared to Luiz’s 60% aerial success and 84.2% pass completion.

The England international, who has helped Chelsea to victory in the last three games he has started in all competitions, will be a key player to watch, should he start the game, in order to see whether he can cope with West Brom’s power from set pieces succesfully and perhaps nail down his permanent role in the starting line-up in the process.

 

Key Man – Youssouf Mulumbu (West Bromwich Albion)

With a place in the top ten up for grabs should West Brom walk away with something against Chelsea this weekend, the evergreen Youssouf Mulumbu will be a vital player in the Midlands club’s pursuit of a positive result for various reasons.

In the 2-0 win over Crystal Palace at the Hawthorns last weekend, Mulumbu produced another top display by making a stupendous 12 ball recoveries and five interceptions to shield his defence and ultimately stop Palace playing their passing game alongside James Morrison on the day.

The 26-year-old has won 76.1% of his 21 tackles at the moment, with a tackle coming every 43 minutes on average, whilst the Congo international also boasts an 84.9% pass completion rate.

Mulumbu carries the fundamental importance of effectively breaking up the play against Chelsea, doing all he can to prevent their abundance of quality in attack from creating goalscoring chances, whilst also feeding balls through to the likes of Stéphane Sessègnon for him to then link the midfield with the attack.

 

Prediction

Games between these two sides have been relatively tight in the last few fixtures, with only five goals coming in the last three occasions, but the creative flair and exuberance that Chelsea contain in the final third could be the difference maker in the end.

Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 West Bromwich Albion

Arsenal Vs Liverpool Preview | Team News, Stats & Key Players

Arsenal have been the in-form team of the Premier League so far this season and so it is no surprise that the Gunners find themselves at the top of the table. On Saturday, they will be taking on another in-form team, when they play a resurgent Liverpool at the Emirates.

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These two clubs have, so far, benefited the most from the upheaval at Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United, but have also faced criticism that aside from having one game each against the so-called big clubs, neither team has faced a difficult challenge. This will be a chance for both sides to prove their doubters wrong and show that they really do belong where they currently sit in the league table.

Team News

Mikel Arteta will be available for Arsenal, after serving his one match ban for the red card he received at Crystal Palace against Chelsea in the league cup on Tuesday. Thomas Vermaelen will likely be dropped to the bench again after falling behind Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker in the pecking order.

Phillippe Coutinho will be in line to make his return to the Liverpool squad on Saturday, after spending over a month out injured because of shoulder surgery after their game against Swansea. It may still be too early for Jose Enrique but we should find out more when Brendan Rodgers holds his pre-match press conference.

Interesting Statistics

Both Arsenal and Liverpool have only lost one league match this season, against Aston Villa and Southampton respectively.

Arsenal have not lost to Liverpool since August 2011, although this was also at the Emirates.

Arsenal have only lost once to Liverpool at the Emirates.

Liverpool’s strike partnership of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge has been the most effective in the league so far this season, scoring 16 goals between them.

The two strikers also lead the league goal scoring charts, with Sturridge on 8 and Suarez on 6.

The last time the two sides met towards the end of last season, it finished 2-2.

Key Players

Ozil’s creativity

Arsenal – Mesut Ozil

Ozil has undoubtedly been the outstanding transfer of the Premier League this season. He has made a huge impact on Arsenal’s ability to get into goalscoring positions, and has already created 18 chances. This doesn’t include his three assists, although it is worth noting that only one of these has come from open play. He is creating a chance every 25 minutes on average which means Liverpool will have to be on their guard to prevent him from creating opportunities for his team-mates. While he has only scored two goals from eight shots, he has a shooting accuracy of 88% which is great for a midfielder. He will have a big part to play in this game.

Suarez’ goal attempts

Liverpool – Luis Suarez

Suarez has been deadly in front of goal in the four league games he has played for the Reds so far this season. He currently sits second in the leading goal scorer table with six goals, three of which he scored in last week’s game against West Brom. He has played 359 minutes of football in the Premier League at an average of 60 minutes per goal. He has attempted 20 shots on goal, with 12 of them on target, giving him an accuracy of 60%. He is also doing well in the creativity department, creating nine chances for his team-mates, seven of which were from open play that also includes an assist. There is no doubt that Arsenal will have to pay particular attention to the Uruguayan on Saturday.

Prediction

Arsenal and Liverpool have both been in fine form so far this season, scoring plenty of goals between them. However, both teams don’t have the best defences and that could be a big factor in this game. Arsenal have a great record against Liverpool at the Emirates, but it would be misguided to rule out the attacking threat of Suarez and Sturridge. I think the game will be a high-scoring draw and finish 2-2.